11.25铜晨会纪要
[11.25 SMM Bronze Morning meeting] Macro aspect: 1) the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in November was 52.2, higher than expected 51.4; the final value of consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in November was 96.8, higher than expected 95.7. The initial figures for the purchasing managers' index and consumer confidence released in the United States exceeded expectations. 2) the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the UK in November was 48.3, lower than expected, while the initial value of Marikt composite PMI in November in the euro area was 50.3, lower than expected. The sharp recession in manufacturing spread further to the services sector, and the eurozone economy nearly stagnated in November. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate: as of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was at $58.50 / tonne, the second consecutive week of flat month-on-month comparison. CESCO Asia Copper week, all the focus of the market are tilted to long single negotiations, spot market enquiries significantly reduced, transactions continue to maintain a light situation. On November 21, Jiang Copper, Tongling, China Copper and Freeport signed the 2020 annual long order, signing the TC/RC price of 62 US dollars / ton, 6.2 cents / pound, and TC down 18.8 US dollars / ton from 80.8 in 2019. 2) scrap copper: the average price difference of fine waste last week was 660 yuan / ton, down 136 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. Last week, macro interference remained, copper futures wide shock, the overall slightly lower than last week, but since mid-November, imports of scrap copper to Hong Kong has declined, due to supply shortages, scrap copper holders are willing to bid up again, scrap copper prices rose slightly, the trend is opposite. 3) Import of copper: last week, the transaction range of warehouse receipts was 64-76 US dollars / ton, and the bill of lading was 60-72 US dollars / ton, QP December. Last week, imported copper basically returned to the state of loss, the loss range of about 50-150 yuan / ton, market demand buying is not good, the lack of buying in the case of market quotation enthusiasm is not high. As a result, there were fewer transactions in the foreign trade market throughout the week, and the Yangshan copper premium remained basically unchanged. 4) inventories: last week, LME copper stocks were down 5850 tons to 218925 tons from the previous month; copper stocks in the previous period were down 476 tons to 135037 tons; and bonded warehouse copper stocks increased by 5800 tons to 243800 tons. 5) spot: as the session rebounded to level 47000 on Friday, high prices are expected to dampen the enthusiasm of the market, but due to the continued impact of imports on the supply of goods in circulation in the market in the near future, it is also difficult to see the active selling of goods by the holders. the market may be deadlocked. Spot water is expected to rise by 50 yuan to 90 yuan per ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range on Friday night, mainly due to repeated information about the international trade situation in recent weeks, which intensified the market wait-and-see mood and limited the volatility of copper prices, while trading volume in and out of the market remained low. In terms of economic data, the overall performance of the November series of PMI data in Europe was flat, the recession in the manufacturing sector spread further to the service industry, and the euro and sterling fell sharply; on the other hand, the minutes of the FED meeting strengthened expectations of suspending interest rate cuts. The initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in November in the United States and the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in November were higher than expected, and the dollar index recovered its decline during the week and returned to 98.257, putting some pressure on copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper closing Yang, above by the 20-day moving average and Brin middle rail pressure, copper prices are expected to adjust slightly today. Today's copper is expected to be 5820-5880 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 46900-47200 yuan / ton.
